Sgr A* vs. G2: Postmortem and What’s Next

From the Max Plank Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, showing the orbital path of G1 and G2.

From the Max Plank Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, showing the orbital path of G1 and G2.

A Short Review

Observation of the stars in orbit around the Supermassive Black Hole (SMBH), Sgr A*, began in the early 1990s. At that time it was hypothesized that a SMBH existed at the center of our galaxy, but confirmation would not be possible until the orbits of the innermost stars could be determined. Finding that these large stars had orbital periods on the order of decades instead of hundreds to thousands of years, only a body with a mass millions of time larger than our Sun could be accelerating these stars. The conclusion was made, after 10 years of observations, that Sgr A* had to be a SMBH.

Starting in 1992, compiled images showed the motion of objects near the galactic center (GC) and allowed physicists to calculate the speed and direction of these objects. Though mostly stars in orbit, one object would be calculated to be on a course bringing it dangerously close to Sgr A*. It would become known later as G2. When disclosed in 2011, G2 was described as a gas cloud made up of mostly hydrogen gas with a mass of around 3x the Earth. Debate between the team that discovered G2 and others flourished as to the exact nature of the cloud. Some believed the cloud was a loose composition without a central body to provide enough gravity to hold it together as it passed the SMBH, thus being consumed over a period of years. Others believed a star or protostar resided within and would pass by without losing much mass.

The date of closest approach, or pericenter, was determined to be in 2013. As that date came the world waited to see what, if anything, would happen. June 2013, an announcement was made pushing back the pericenter date to later in the year. Then, further adjustments, early 2014. Due to the unknown nature of G2, uncertainties made the ability to predict when the pass would happen. During this time, theories would be posed about what to expect, and observations from observatories other than the team that made the initial discovery presented a different storyline. They suggested that the cloud had passed pericenter intact. Still, the exact nature of the cloud was uncertain.

The initial description of G2 was a head with a small density, followed by the main body with a mass of about 3x the mass of Earth, and an elongated tail with an estimated mass of about that of the main body. All of this gas was expected to be shredded and stretched, then consumed by Sgr A* over the course of anywhere between 10 years and 80 years.

An Unprecedented Repeat?

This was all that was publicly confirmed from the end of 2012 to early 2015. A recent paper discussed the track of G2 in comparison to a similar cloud that passed pericenter on an almost identical path in mid to late 2001, named G1. Using this identical gas cloud, the team could draw conclusions about the future of G2.

So… This unprecedented event had already happened. No one said anything about the similarities between G2 and G1. Obviously G2 suggested it was the second cloud just by its name, papers were published in 2003, but not mentioned in the discussion about the outcome of G2. Why?

It is my belief that both G1 and G2 are parts of a larger structure. The initial description of G2, a small head, dense body, and a tail, is accurate but larger. The head was G1, passing in 2001, G2 was the dense body, now confirmed to contain a binary system, and the tail, I assume will be named G3, will have a pericenter pass in 2025, 13 years after the pass of G2. Using the orbital parameters posted of the gas cloud wiki, the orbital period is around 300 years. Though it is assumed this was the first time G2 entered the central galactic core, the structure of the overall gas cloud system suggests that it has passed close to Sgr A* in the past.

The pericenter pass of the G2 system 300+ years ago agitated the binary system leading to a catastrophic event within, stripping stellar gasses and stretching them out both in front and behind the binary system. That or disrupting one of the stars to the point of collapse, leading to the ejection of stellar atmosphere, some being consumed by the stable star in the pair, and the rest thrown out ahead and behind the system.

Effect on the Solar System

This event would have caused the “little ice age”. The passage of G1 in 2001 would have had effected the solar system, including Earth. The change in electrical potential due to the cloud’s change in apparent movement (as in before pericenter it was moving toward Sgr A*, then after it was moving away) would lead to massive terrestrial weather changes. And we can confirm this by looking at the temperature changes. Ten of the hottest years on record have occurred after 2000. The curious behavure of Hurricane Erin in September 2001 could be explained by massive influxes of energy into the Solar System. The observed changes in orbital parameters of NEOs reported on the MPEC site the morning of September 11, 2001. Also the ramping up of power and frequency of hurricanes in the years following G1’s pericenter passage.

Though the GC had been observed since the early 1990s, and the cloud would have been observed long enough to know in advance that it was on a course leading very close to Sgr A*, the US military and government was caught off guard. Either they were not aware of the potential problems or they were unable to prepare due to lack of congressional fortitude or public apathy. As seen in the Wikileaks 9/11 pager intercepts, some time after 0400 UTC, 12:00 EST, computers failed within multiple government offices. As disclosed in the transcripts, the US customs office was forced to use pen and paper as of 2:00 am. Employees coming on we’re unable to log in and I.T. staff from multiple companies were struggling to find answers to solve the problems.

Some might see this as just a simple computer problem, or see the situation, as was the case early that morning, as a cyber attack called a “smurf attack”. The problems faced by our government that morning were not isolated. Multiple countries, from Germany to Canada as well as Italy, were effected. Banks, companies, and health care facilities were disrupted as well. And one technician messages his staff that this was the second time in two days this had happened. He had never seen this happen before.

Antiquated computer systems exposed to energies from space, such as solar magnetic radiation, would cause one-time line failures leading to hardware and software problems. National line failures, like LAN lines, would also occur. If you read the communications from that morning, the chaos relayed seems to show a massive worldwide computer failure in-progress, and no one knows who or what is to blame for many hours. The biggest question left unanswered is did the military or the government ever make the right connection between naturally occurring phenomena and computer failures? The possibility exists that, due to the events that transpired later that day, a full and accurate diagnostic of the crash of systems and firewalls planet wide was never carried out, leaving open the possibility of a reoccurrence.

Preparedness: Then and Now

So, the pericenter passage of G1 caused failure of computer systems. G1 also caused an acceleration of anticipated changes in planetary weather systems, both on Earth and many other planets in the solar system.

How does that event compare to the passage of  G2? It seems that our military, from a technical stand point, had prepared for the passage of G2. No electronic failures, though some “cyber attacks” could be attributed to failures caused by natural forces. That would be speculative until proof comes to light. A steady increase in observation of Sgr A* has been ongoing over the decade leading up to G2’s close approach. This has given both scientists and the public close to real time data…. minus, of course, the information that the government deems sensitive and/or a threat to national security. Two major flares were observed and not reported to the public until just a couple months ago. (When one goes back and looks at the spaceweather data and the weather data for the September 2013 flaring, effects were felt here on Earth as well as on the Sun.)  All this seems to suggest that, forgiving the occasional misstep and oversight, the massive amount of money spent by our government to harden our country’s sensitive electrical infrastructure was successful.

The preparation for pericenter passage of G2, compared to pericenter passage of G1, was a success. The method taken by our military leaders and the secretive methods employed by our leaders could be debated, but the end result seems to be positive.

What about G3 and its pericenter pass due in 2025? Will the preparations be sufficient for the next go around? Or is there still more to do?

According to some models of the cloud, the first of the overall structure will begin interacting with the accretion disk at around the same time the tail will make its closest approach. This means dust and other pieces will start to be accelerated to high speeds as they begin their final decent into the black hole. An increase in X-ray output will start within the next couple years, if it has not begun already, and the possibility of Sgr A* and its surroundings could become visible. It mainly depends on how much of the cloud is going to be consumed.

G1, or the head of G2, will begin its interaction with the black hole just as the tail of G2, or G3, makes is closest approach. This could lead to some discharge due to the change in electrical potential of the overall structure of the binary star system as the relative direction of the system changes from inbound to outbound. In a handful of papers, concerns about interaction of the relativistic jets with the cloud were raised due to the inclination of the path of the cloud. Imagine holding a baseball in your hand at arms length in front of you. The ball being the black hole. The path of the G2 system goes away from you, over the top of the ball, around the far side, and back toward you along the bottom of the ball. If the ball were a SMBH, the jets would come out of the top and bottom of the ball, almost in the path of G2. The eccentricity of the inclination of the G2 system is very high, meaning its path takes it almost through the theoretical spots were relativistic jet would form! If this were to happen, X-ray output would increase due to rapid acceleration of particles as they interact with the jets. This did not seem to happen with G2. Evidence suggests it may have happened with G1. Is there more to come? Was there more interaction than disclosed? Answers to both of these questions would be very helpful, eh?

Take Measured Action Now

I’ve attempted to prepare for the worst and hope for the best since I reached the conclusion that coalescence at the galactic center was the event we were to face. A logical and scientific approach was what I believed to be the best path. Unfortunately, censorship of data due to a perceived threat to national security makes this path impossible. No individual will be able to judge what is to come or has taken place. Only top level government officials will be “in the know”. My suggestion to anyone who reads this is prepare for the worst. Prepare for the long haul. The Freemasons say “Hear, see, be silent”, and that may be a good suggestion for the most part. On a local scale, between you me and the wall, sharing of information and details might be acceptable. It is so difficult to judge what “big brother” doesn’t want shared since it is all so secretive.

An honest and open search for the truth cannot be stopped. If intentions are pure and a positive force for all humanity, they cannot stop you. They can distract you, move things around so they are harder to find, or isolate you from others of similar mind, but you cannot be stopped so long as you don’t seek to break the law. Discretion, I suppose, is the key word.

The need for preparation cannot be denied. And inaction would be far worse for humanity. At this time, full disclosure of the effects of this series of events would not be advisable, but cloak and dagger black ops methods must not be used. People who are awake and aware should, with utmost discretion, voice their opinions to our leaders, demanding they act in the interest of the people above the interest of institutions. They must act with an emphasis on inclusiveness as opposed to entitlement. Enlightenment should not equate to superiority. This creates an era of unnatural selection and would be a disservice to the species.

Conclusion

At such time our leaders are prepared to use the tools of technology that have been invented by humanity to ensure the survival of all, then disclosure of the true nature of events must occur, sooner rather than later. As the inevitable pains that go with the enlightenment of fate are unavoidable, an allowance of time for these emotions to develop and mature must be scheduled into a course of action. Avoidance of this truth out of fear of the worst case scenario will lead to a worst case scenario come to fruition. As difficult as it can be, we must depend on humanity using its best judgement and siding with strength and hope instead of fear and selfishness.

A universal community of shared knowledge of events must be achieved. Nationalism must be placed second to the common good of the individual. Just because we see another country as, possibly, emotionally or intellectually immature, this does not mean we can withhold important information that can motivate people toward a conclusion and action in their best interest. It is apparent that those who founded our religious institutions were enlightened beyond what most believe today. Thinly veiled in the writings of these moral dogmas is a vast scientific text that teaches the historical knowledge of events that have occurred similar to what we face today. As most people know the teachings of one religion or another, we must believe that, faced with challenges similar to historical religious figureheads, they will strive to act in a similar way that these enlightened ones have done previously, or act as they have instructed.

Above all else, this course of action will help to ensure humanity will continue to posses the accumulated knowledge built up since the end of the last ice age. No matter the outcome, the many or few that are given the chance to further our species must have every tool available. According to one account of the biblical story of Noah’s flood, after the waters parted and life began again, all of the accumulated historical knowledge was lost in 150 years. This seems to be due to a select handful of persons being entrusted with the duty of passing it on to future generations. Please excuse me but…. what the fuck?!! Knowledge is to be shared with all so that we can all be entrusted with the awesome responsibility of preserving and passing that knowledge on to future generations.

Let us hope that the changes humanity and the earth are experiencing usher in an age of enlightenment that lead to universal trust in the good of all mankind. And the power gained from that trust can be used to our individual benefit, that we all share the same fate and the same goal. Knowing that we all look to the sky asking, and fight side by side with people we may never meet to find answers to those questions, in a truly universal sense, we hold in our hands our collective fates and fortunes.

Keep your head UP!!

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